Intel is ASML’s single largest customer, making up a full quarter of their income. TSMC is the next biggest, but all their current expansion is in USA, so they’d probably not be able to buy anything either.
Next then is Samsung who are also building out US fabs, but also new Korean fabs, so some of their business wouldn’t be allowed.
Global Foundries would also be out.
ASML would have to survive losing 60% or more of their current income. They’d be gone in a year since EU countries don’t/won’t subsidise semiconductors. (see: The loss of Qimonda, Global Foundries stuck on 28nm in EU forever, etc)
ASML is the sole manufacturer of EUV machines in the world. Everyone needs ASML, not the other way around. There is no replacement for ASML.
ASML basically decides what they want to do. Right now they align with the USA export restrictions, but that friendly relation is not guaranteed to remain. Only China is banned. ASML can still sell their machines at will otherwise.
If ASML breaks with the USA it will be fine, but the USA won’t be fine at all.
That’s a card which only hurts ASML if played.
If ASML has many competitors, then yes.
If ASML had many customers, then yes.
Intel is ASML’s single largest customer, making up a full quarter of their income. TSMC is the next biggest, but all their current expansion is in USA, so they’d probably not be able to buy anything either.
Next then is Samsung who are also building out US fabs, but also new Korean fabs, so some of their business wouldn’t be allowed.
Global Foundries would also be out.
ASML would have to survive losing 60% or more of their current income. They’d be gone in a year since EU countries don’t/won’t subsidise semiconductors. (see: The loss of Qimonda, Global Foundries stuck on 28nm in EU forever, etc)
ASML is the sole manufacturer of EUV machines in the world. Everyone needs ASML, not the other way around. There is no replacement for ASML.
ASML basically decides what they want to do. Right now they align with the USA export restrictions, but that friendly relation is not guaranteed to remain. Only China is banned. ASML can still sell their machines at will otherwise.
If ASML breaks with the USA it will be fine, but the USA won’t be fine at all.