bookies put up their own money on the other side. adjust odds to try to even up the sides of a bet. Prediction markets are like a casino rake on a poker game. The casino is not gambling its own money.

Like sports betting the goal is to try and get both sides to bet as evenly as possible and then take your cut off the top.

False. The house just takes a percentage of all bets (usually 0.5%). The price (from 0 to $1) is what fully balances buyers/sellers. The house has no risk of loss. You can say that futures markets or options are gambling with large majority of participants eventually losing everything they put up, but that doesn’t mean that futures prices do not have predictive value.

You obviously don’t understand what you are commenting on, and there is no valid reason to call what I said, endorsement spin.

Just because I’m a paranoid, stressed out, depressed pill popping mess doesn’t mean that society… I don’t want more pills. Thank you doctor for recommending pills over revolution.

They were better at 5 minute/hour before networks called results, for sure. 2016 had HRC/dems for congress 80% odds of winning both day before, and before polls closed. 2020 has Biden winning during that time, but when results were being announced state by state, Trump jumped to a 75% chance of winning. Here, the networks were right to say “but Philadelphia hasn’t counted yet” type of hedges to “fake early leads” by Trump who was yelling to stop counting. 2024 was predicted well the whole time.

Fine, prediction markets are gambling. They are better gambling propositions than traditional oddsmaker books which have higher margins/house take baked into them.

Big political outcomes is a helpful prediction market service, even/because insiders can cheat by betting on the outcome. Midterm outcomes, or (4% chance) of $5000 dividend cheque by March 31 2007 are specific probabilities that reveal pure BS.

Some horrible contracts are whether a speech will include some word, or outcomes that have already been predetermined (Oscars) with insiders who know 100% betting vs the clueless. Other terrible contracts include US-Iran ceasefire status. Too ambiguous, and resolution process is prone to corruption.

Still, these markets are more useful predictors than polls, because experts are analyzing with money instead of bias.

That is one of the biggest counter examples. Critical anger for daring to release the film. It’s considered a classic by now.

What technical, fundamental reason is there for the crash in price?

Smaller models are inherently faster, and use less gpus to fit inside, and less gpu time per training step. Newer models are smarter at smaller size than older models, and so also come up with correct answer in fewer tokens.

There are 15 labs accross the world competing without patent restriction for software building. It’s orders of magnitude faster than Moore’s law, because its highly competitive, and software has massive “compiler” resources thrown at it, in investor/government frenzy.

SpaceXai’s biggest client! Future of warfare needs golden dome $1T+ contract to spaceX, obviously. Another $2T for Grok built skynet is recommended.

The$6T number is per year revenue target in 2031. 6B is a round number, but facebook has 3b monthly active users, and google ai overview has 2.5b monthly active users. baidu (no google overlap) has 644m monthly active users. So at 3b internet connected users addressable or so, its $2000/user. MAUs double count work/personal/multiple/bot accounts.

Also, there’s about 1b desk/knowledge workers in the world. = $6000/job/year

was there any justification floated for insurrection act invocation?

every human being on earth would have to spend at least $150 per year on average.

6b humans would need to spend $1000/year on average. On top of phone/computer + internet/data services. Global average spending on food/year is $1500.

If they crank up the price then people will look elsewhere.

And, in last 2 weeks, the 2 leading US labs have reduced prices. Trend is going the opposite way.

the financial logic behind the data center buildout simply doesn’t hold up.

need to change assumptions that it requires a decent end ROI, or good economic proposition, when analyzing logic.

1. Greater fool theory. Hype hype hype to cash out at IPO or buyout. Circular financing is your friend. Outright fraud of 5x more expensive data centers in space that are only useful for slow inference.

2. There’s nothing else for the US to spend on, and aspirationally seek economic competitiveness with China. A race to end US employment for higher oligarch profits, as a bribe to narcissist in chief, becomes somehow MAGA.

3. Skynet government surveillance, fascism, and geopolitical dominance. Government will buy all of the tokens or China wins. US fascism/oppression will increase to protect Israel first establishment power, or China wins. There can be no guardrails on US government, or AI bond villain, use of models, or China wins. Zero regulatory discussion exists on preventing the pursuit of Skynet, and “whoever wins AI, wins” is only/purely a Skynet goal, and it is policy unanimity. https://naturalfinance.blogspot.com/2026/09/a-global-prosperity-manifesto.html

An irony in 2nd/3rd point is that industry is fully aware that about 90% of tokens in SEA area datacenters are consumed in China, and it is one of biggest areas of new datacenter developments. So some chain of control in the profit/revenue flow from token sales to China is a near term priority over skynet dominance over China.

The cost decline for a given level of performance does tend to slow over time

Even in their tests, there are big drops in 2026 models, and recent ones.

A much more comprehensive and easy test is to follow this benchmark suite (AAi). Its a mix of medium/hard benchmarks, with bias for agentic coding. (sorry for url dump) https://artificialanalysis.ai/?endpoints=openai_gpt-5-2-codex%2Cazure_kimi-k2-thinking%2Camazon-bedrock_qwen3-coder-480b-a35b-instruct%2Camazon-bedrock_qwen3-coder-30b-a3b-instruct%2Ctogetherai_minimax-m2-5_fp4%2Ctogetherai_glm-5_fp4%2Ctogetherai_qwen3-next-80b-a3b-reasoning%2Cgoogle_gemini-3-pro_ai-studio%2Cgoogle_glm-4-7%2Cmoonshot-ai_kimi-k2-thinking_turbo%2Cnovita_glm-5_fp8&models=mimo-v2-5-pro%2Cgpt-6-sol-low%2Cgemini-3-5-flash-minimal%2Cgpt-5-6-luna-low%2Cclaude-fable-5-1-low%2Ckimi-k2-6%2Ckimi-k2-6-non-reasoning%2Cmimo-v2-0206%2Cglm-5-3-flash%2Cgpt-6-luna-xhigh%2Cglm-4.5%2Cgpt-5-5%2Cclaude-opus-5-low%2Cmimo-v2-5-0424%2Cclaude-sonnet-5%2Cmimo-v2-6-pro%2Cclaude-opus-4-5-thinking%2Cminimax-m3%2Cgpt-6-astra%2Cclaude-opus-5-5%2Cqwen3-8-27b-non-reasoning%2Cgpt-6-luna-medium%2Cclaude-fable-5-1%2Cgpt-5-6-luna%2Cmimo-v2-5-pro-non-reasoning%2Cminimax-m2-7%2Ck2-horizon-mova-36b-a4b%2Cclaude-opus-4-6-adaptive%2Cgpt-5-6-luna-medium%2Cgemini-3-1-flash-lite-preview%2Cgpt-5-4-pro%2Cgrok-4-3-medium%2Cnvidia-nemotron-3-super-120b-a12b%2Cgpt-6-luna-non-reasoning%2Cqwen3-8-27b-medium%2Cgpt-5-5-medium%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro-0424-non-reasoning%2Cgpt-6-luna%2Cgemini-3-8-flash-medium%2Cnvidia-nemotron-3-nano-30b-a3b-reasoning%2Cgrok-4-5%2Cgemini-3-flash-reasoning%2Cgpt-6-luna-high%2Cqwen3-8-27b-low%2Cmimo-v2-flash%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cqwen3-6-35b-a3b%2Cgemini-3-8-flash%2Cclaude-4-5-sonnet-thinking%2Cllama-4-maverick%2Cgrok-4-3%2Cclaude-opus-4-8%2Cmuse-spark-1-3%2Cqwen3-8-flash-next%2Cgpt-6-astra-low%2Ckimi-k2-5%2Cgpt-5-4%2Cqwen3-8-27b%2Cqwen3-8-max%2Cgpt-5-5-high%2Cclaude-sonnet-5-5%2Chy3%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cgpt-5-4-mini%2Ck2-horizon-375b-a23b%2Cgemini-3-1-pro-preview%2Cgpt-6-luna-low%2Cgpt-6-sol%2Cgrok-4-6%2Cclaude-4-1-opus-thinking%2Cglm-5-3%2Cgpt-6-sol-non-reasoning%2Cclaude-sonnet-5-non-reasoning%2Cgpt-5-6-sol%2Cgpt-5-6-sol-xhigh%2Cdeepseek-v4-1-flash%2Cgemini-3-7-flash-low%2Cclaude-opus-5-5-xhigh%2Cclaude-sonnet-4-6-adaptive%2Cglm-5-2-non-reasoning%2Cclaude-opus-5-5-medium%2Cgpt-oss-120b%2Cclaude-opus-5-5-high%2Cglm-5-2%2Ckimi-k3%2Cgrok-4-3-low%2Cdeepseek-v4-flash%2Cclaude-opus-5-medium%2Cgemini-4-argon&agents=claude-code-fable-5-1-max-with-fallback%2Ckimi-code-cli-kimi-k3%2Cgrok-build-grok-4-7-xhigh%2Cmuse-code-muse-spark-1-3-max%2Cantigravity-sdk-gemini-3-8-flash-high%2Cdevin-fusion-cli-gpt-6-astra-xhigh-swe-2-medium%2Cclaude-code-qwen3-8-max%2Cdevin-fusion-cli-claude-fable-5-1-xhigh-swe-2-medium%2Ccodex-gpt-5-6-sol-max-reasoning-effort-max%2Cclaude-code-opus-5-max%2Ccodex-gpt-6-astra-max-reasoning-effort-max%2Copencode-glm-5-3-reasoning-effort-max%2Cgrok-build-grok-4-6-xhigh%2Ccodex-deepseek-v4-pro-0813-max%2Ccodex-deepseek-v4-flash-0731-max%2Cmuse-code-muse-spark-1-3-xhigh&coding-agents=cost&model-creators=zai%2Cgoogle%2Calibaba%2Copenai%2Canthropic%2Cxai%2Cmeta%2Cmistral%2Cdeepseek%2Cstepfun%2Cthinking-machines%2Ckimi%2Cifm%2Cminimax%2Cxiaomi&releases=claude-opus-5-5%2Cclaude-fable-5-1%2Cgpt-6-astra%2Cgpt-5-6-luna%2Cmuse-spark-1-3%2Cgrok-4-7%2Cmimo-v2-6-pro%2Cglm-5-3%2Cgemini-3-8-flash%2Cdeepseek-v4-1-flash%2Cminimax-m3&capability-models=gemini-3-5-flash-lite%2Cstep-5%2Cinkling%2Cmimo-v2-6-flash%2Cglm-5-3-flash%2Cmimo-v2-6-pro%2Cminimax-m3%2Cgpt-6-astra%2Cclaude-opus-5-5%2Cclaude-fable-5-1%2Cgpt-5-6-luna%2Cmuse-glimmer%2Cgrok-4-7%2Cnvidia-nemotron-3-ultra-550b-a55b%2Cgpt-6-luna%2Cgemini-3-8-flash%2Cmuse-spark-1-3%2Cqwen3-8-27b%2Cqwen3-8-max%2Cclaude-sonnet-5-5%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Ck2-horizon-375b-a23b%2Cgpt-6-sol%2Cglm-5-3%2Cgpt-5-6-sol%2Cdeepseek-v4-1-flash%2Cmistral-medium-3-5%2Ckimi-k3%2Cqwen3-8-flash-next&cost=evaluation-breakdown

Opus 4.8 (may 2026), by far best model at the time, gets equaled by deepseek 4 pro (july 31) and 4.1 flash (sept 10th) at less than 1/100th the cost. MiMo 2.6 pro (sept 21) is even cheaper and beats opus 4.8 scores by a wide margin. sonnet 4.6 max to gpt luna high is also a 99% cost drop in a short time for lower performance level models.

I see this argument about AI. “The CEOs surely wouldn’t do it if it was dangerous. What would be the point?” To buy a bunker in New Zealand to ride it out?

It’s proof of unsustainable AI bubble. Can’t hit those numbers. https://lemmy.ca/post/71626228/25584891

green onions is produce that doesn’t stay fresh for very long. Need to eat whole bunch within 3 days.

Prediction market odds are 5% for this happening. You can double your $5k, by just betting $250 on it, if you believe.

Green onions are up 200% in just a few years

Maybe just 1 of each of the more secret advanced stuff.