A new poll shows Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico leading Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton ® by 5 points over a month before the November midterm elections.
The Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) poll released Friday showed Talarico with 49 percent support from voters and Paxton with 44 percent support, with 3 percent saying they are undecided. This new poll is the second in a monthly series of polling results released by TPOR. Last month’s poll showed Talarico’s ahead by 6 points, 48-42.
Independent voters favor Talarico by double digits, 58-26, with 5 percent who say they are undecided. Paxton holds the lead among white voters and voters 55 years and above. Talarico leads among Latino voters, Black voters, voters under 55, college-educated voters, men and women, the poll stated.
That was just the FiveThirtyEight model. Most other models had Clinton in the high 90’s.
Which was wild because a lot of the polls were Clinton around +4 with about a +/-4 margin.
I remember Silver shitting on those high 90’s models because they clearly weren’t baking in enough room for the margin of error.