

IMHO, Clinton v Trump is also the perfect example of normies not understanding how statistics and probability works.
Trump had a nearly 30% chance of winning. That’s a legit possibility of winning. If powerball had a 30% chance of winning, everyone would be running to buy a ticket.
People saw Clinton at 70% and seemed to think that was a lock. 70% odd isn’t a 100% chance of winning. It’s 70%.






Which was wild because a lot of the polls were Clinton around +4 with about a +/-4 margin.
I remember Silver shitting on those high 90’s models because they clearly weren’t baking in enough room for the margin of error.