As much as y’all don’t want this to be accurate, sadly, it kind of is. Non-US betting markets in 2016, 2020, and 2024 all correctly called the US presidential election better than Five Thirty Eight or polls or any other formerly reliable method.
At which point were they more accurate? 5 minutes before the final count was counted? An hour? A day? Without this number is like a percentage with unknown reference.
They were better at 5 minute/hour before networks called results, for sure. 2016 had HRC/dems for congress 80% odds of winning both day before, and before polls closed. 2020 has Biden winning during that time, but when results were being announced state by state, Trump jumped to a 75% chance of winning. Here, the networks were right to say “but Philadelphia hasn’t counted yet” type of hedges to “fake early leads” by Trump who was yelling to stop counting. 2024 was predicted well the whole time.
As much as y’all don’t want this to be accurate, sadly, it kind of is. Non-US betting markets in 2016, 2020, and 2024 all correctly called the US presidential election better than Five Thirty Eight or polls or any other formerly reliable method.
At which point were they more accurate? 5 minutes before the final count was counted? An hour? A day? Without this number is like a percentage with unknown reference.
They were better at 5 minute/hour before networks called results, for sure. 2016 had HRC/dems for congress 80% odds of winning both day before, and before polls closed. 2020 has Biden winning during that time, but when results were being announced state by state, Trump jumped to a 75% chance of winning. Here, the networks were right to say “but Philadelphia hasn’t counted yet” type of hedges to “fake early leads” by Trump who was yelling to stop counting. 2024 was predicted well the whole time.