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Cake day: September 6th, 2024

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  • The economics really aren’t there for chatbots. They don’t scale well. Each additional user costs more money than they generate in revenue. But automated taxis? That’s a different story. Currently Waymo has to go through the laborious process of creating intricate 3D maps of the cities and places its vehicles will operate in. But that mapping cost is fixed, regardless of the number of taxis driving in that city. And a lot of R&D has gone into everything. But the R&D costs are the same whether we’re talking one taxi or a million.

    Robotaxis have very different economics than AI chatbots. They actually have very real economies of scale. Plus while their self-driving vehicles currently cost about $150k, that cost is only going to go down with time. And compared to the cost of a human driver? It’s hard to see how they won’t end up profitable eventually.


  • I think OP’s scenario has bigger implications than just online banking. If AI systems can hack websites a thousand times faster than humans can patch them? Sure, you could have AIs try to patch the leaks themselves, but in a numbers game, it’s always easier to play offense than defense. The hacker bots need only succeed once to compromise a system.

    Imagine a world where the internet simply becomes completely unusable. Imagine a world where literally no login credential of any kind is safe. Any site accessible to the open internet becomes immediately hacked. Even if you just want to throw a completely inconsequential and profitless 1990s-style personal webpage to share your life and views, it still gets hacked. The minute you connect your site to the net, it gets taken over by a propaganda bot. The personal views you share now get subtly altered to push the bot owner’s

    How about something like Canvas, the learning management system used by many colleges and universities? That becomes unusable. Bots try to hack professor accounts so they can loot the content to train bots to apply for online teaching gigs. Student accounts get compromised, and then sit quietly. The night a big assignment is due, they hold your account hostage. Or students themselves can sign up for bots that will perform all the coursework for them for a tiny fee. Or anti-intellectual forces who just hate universities in general just try to shut the whole thing down. Or racist bots try to hack and subtly lower the grades of minority students. This is the world you have to imagine. Every system targeted by bot that can hack systems with superhuman skill, directed by people of every interest and grievance imaginable.

    The open internet then becomes completely unusable. We’re already seeing this with the “Dead Internet Theory,” but that’s mostly about social media and search results. We’re talking about a future where even the content on the most known and vetted websites cannot be trusted. You can still have hard-wired local intranets that lack any remote or even wireless access. But anything that isn’t entirely airgapped becomes immediately hijacked by nefarious interests with any number of evil intentions. What use is AWS in such a world? Who’s going to pay money to host websites, when they’re just going to immediately get taken over by hackers? Sufficiently advanced hacking bots effectively make the very concept of the Internet an obsolete technology.

    And, the real the knife in the heart? How are you even going to run AWS in such a world? If every login can be hacked, that includes the AWS login. The instant you open an AWS account, and your payment details get used to host more botnets. And of course, in this scenario, how will you even pay for AWS’s services, with online banking being completely compromised?

    No, in OP’s scenario, AWS is just as dead as everything else. AWS only exists because it’s profitable to host things on the net. The minute that changes, AWS disappears. And in this scenario, even operating AWS becomes impossible.



  • Nuance my friend. Nuance. Any study based on IQ is bullshit, because IQ is bullshit. And you’re making the same mistake I alluded to - lumping all forms of intelligence as the same. And I can propose all sorts of evolutionary mechanisms. I proposed one in the above comment. Again, I’m not talking about a broad conclusion that one ethnic group is smarter than another. That’s preposterous, just like there isn’t one ethnic group that is universally better at athletics than all others. But I can think of three physical advantages that are well documented and differ between ethnic groups:

    1. High altitude breath capacity adaptation.

    2. Long distance running advantages.

    3. Lactose tolerance.

    The brain is an organ like any other. I can think of many potential cognitive advantages one ethnic group could have over another, with very clear evolutionary mechanisms involved. These are pure speculation, but very plausible:

    1. An ethnic group with a long tradition of larger than average and more tightly knit extended families may have superior social skills. In that society, the more socially skilled had an advantage in reproduction over those that were less skilled.

    2. There are differences in the kind of cognitive tasks involved in farming and hunter-gathering. It would not be absurd if ethnic groups that have been farming for thousands of years have evolved an advantage on the cognitive abilities most useful to farming and a disadvantage on those tasks involved in hunting and gathering.

    3. Differences in rates of neurodiversity and neurodivergence. There is a prominent theory that many “conditions” like autism and ADHD are evolutionary holdovers. The theory is that while certain neurotypes can be disabling in modern societies, these same neurotypes could have been advantageous in pre-agrarian history. If that is truly the case, why wouldn’t rates of these neurotypes differ among ethnic groups? The people of North Sentinel Island still live off hunter-gathering. While there are some ethnic groups that have been farming for 10,000 years. If certain neurotypes really were more advantageous in pre-agrarian societies, ethnic groups with no or shorter histories of agriculture should be expected to have higher rates of these neurotypes. Honestly it would be extremely fascinating to test a whole bunch of people for autism and ADHD and plot that against some estimate of how long their ancestors have been involved in farming. If there is a correlation, it would be pretty slam-dunk evidence for the neurotype evolutionary advantage theory. Maybe the rates of autism among the Sentinelese are sky high.



  • It’s also very easy to take things out of context. For example, I can see someone being a defender of pure science and saying, “no topic should be beyond the purview of science. There are no sacred cows. There are undeniable differences in any number of physical features between various ethnic and racial groups. Think of how the people of Tibet and Nepal have evolved greater lung capacity to handle high altitudes. The brain is an organ like any other, why shouldn’t there be differences in brain structure between certain racial or ethnic groups? Maybe some groups have slight advantages in certain kinds of intelligences and cognitive abilities.”

    Honestly, that doesn’t sound like an absurd hypothesis at all. Certain groups have any number of physical advantages or disadvantages, why not mental advantages? This wouldn’t be a universal, “this race/ethnic group is smarter than another.” It would be “this ethnic group has an advantage in this particular cognitive task, this in another.” Would that really be so absurd? Certain groups have advantages in long-distance running, why not in say, 3D mental object rotation, or facial recognition, or social relations management? Maybe some ethnic group that has always lived in large extended families and clans would on average be better at keeping track of complex social webs.

    I would find it absurd to propose that one ethnic or racial group was universally “more intelligent” than others, but that’s because there isn’t just one type of intelligence. But I could easily see certain groups having advantages in certain areas. We know that physical advantages can exist, it would be unexpected if the same didn’t happen to certain specific cognitive tasks.

    I haven’t watched the video, but I could easily see how someone could take an argument like the above and slander someone by removing all nuance and saying, “this person thinks black people are less intelligent than white people!!!”




  • It’s crazy to treat all forms of threat the same. Is climate change a threat to present human civilization? Could it cause a collapse on the order of the Bronze Age Collapse? Could it potentially kill billions? Yes to all. But there are threats of devastation, and there are threats of extinction. Climate change is incapable of causing human extinction. There are just too many of us and we’re far too adaptable to too many types of environment. The absurdly worst case of climate change is that things go so bad that we end up back at hunter-gatherer levels of population and technology, with a few million survivors huddled in the high latitudes. But even that is absurdly unlikely, as we would be far better off rolling the dice with climate engineering efforts like releasing fine particulates into the upper atmosphere. That’s not a solution we want to use first, but it is quite practical, quite affordable, and would be infinitely preferable to the worst case climate scenarios.

    But superintelligent AI? That is a legitimate threat of human extinction. Something like that could actually end the human race and leave no one left to rebuild.

    That’s what I mean by nuance. It’s lazy thinking to just throw up your hands and say, “well, any number of things could kill us, guess they’re all the same. No use worrying about this one if the billionaires are going to do it anyway! What’s one more threat on the pile?”

    Nuance matters. There are actually very few scenarios that could truly cause human extinction. Climate change can’t do it. Nuclear war can’t do it. Soil depletion and microplastic won’t do it. Declining birth rates certainly won’t do it. But truly capable AI run amok? That is something that could actually wipe out the human race. We owe our domination of this planet to the fact that we’re the smartest thing on it. And in our past we drove several other human species to extinction, outcompeting them on intelligence. Creating something more intelligent than ourselves is a genuinely suicidal act as a species. And hand-waiving it away as “well, we got billionaires doing that already!” ignores all nuance and causes us to not truly consider what is an existential threat and what is not. Nuance matters. Not all bad things are equally bad. Not all dangerous things are equally dangerous.